Survey Shows Large Majority of Iowa Democratic Caucus-Voters and County Chairs Take Global Warming Very Seriously

Contact:
Steve Cochran, Environmental Defense 202-387-3500
Keith Gaby, Environmental Defense 202-387-3500

WASHINGTON, D.C. — A telephone survey commissioned by Environmental Defense among 602 likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers reveals that over 2/3rds of caucus-goers – and more than 3/4ths of Democratic county chairs – consider global warming to be extremely or very serious.

• A 72% of majority of Democratic caucus-goers say they consider global warming to be extremely (32%) or very (39%) serious – while another 15% say it is fairly serious. Only 11% dismiss it as just somewhat (9%) or not at all serious (2%).
• Among a separate poll of Democratic county chairs and vice chairs, 77% think global warming is extremely (37%) or very (40%) serious – plus 14% who say it is fairly serious.

The research also included a separate poll of Democratic county chairs and vice chairs – perhaps the first time such a survey of Iowa Democratic party influentials has ever been released.

Democrats are More Prone to Support a ‘Global Warming’ Candidate but They Do Not Know Most Candidates’ Stands on the Issue

Large majorities of these active Iowa Democrats are also more likely to support a presidential candidate who makes cutting carbon pollution and global warming a centerpiece in their campaign – however at least two-fifths of caucus-goers do not know where the candidates stand on global warming.

• Fully 69% of caucus-goers and 80% of county chairs/vice chairs say they would be more likely “to support a presidential candidate who made cutting carbon pollution and global warming a big issue in their campaign.” Only 14% of caucus-goers and 9% of county chairs say they would be less likely to support such a candidate.
• Large blocs of caucus-goers – ranging from 43% to 86% — either do not know the candidates or more likely do not know their stands on global warming. In no case are a majority of caucus-goers able to offer an excellent or good rating of likely Democratic candidates’ performance on addressing the issue of global warming (ranging from 42% excellent/good for John Edwards to 28% for Tom Vilsack to 6% for Chris Dodd).

Just 16% of likely caucus-goers say their mind is made up on whom to support. The remaining caucus-goers are either initially undecided (8%) or say they could still be persuaded to support someone other than their first choice (75%).

Iowa Democrats are Widely Supportive of a Proposal to Reduce Carbon Emissions

A later survey question reveals that 72% of caucus-goers and 67% of county chairs favor a proposal to reduce carbon emissions in the U.S. (based on a description that resembles a Senate bill entitled the Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act – and the wording can be found in the attached appendix). The measure is opposed by 15% of caucus-goers and 25% of county chairs.

In terms of long-range problems, caucus-goers rank global warming on par with other leading problems such as health care and high government deficits – and well above issues such as terrorism, new diseases, and competition for jobs from developing countries.

Indeed, if one were to combine the closely related problems of global warming and energy shortages they would be ranked by Iowa Democrats as the top long-term problem facing America’s next generation.

“These various survey findings illustrate the breadth and intensity of support among Iowa Democrats for expecting the presidential candidates to not only address global warming on the stump but to actively promote a meaningful solution like carbon reduction,” said pollster and Iowa native Paul Harstad.

John Edwards Starts Out with a Substantial Lead in the Iowa Caucuses, but the Race is Very Fluid

John Edwards is well out front in the early preferences not only of likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers (36%), but also among Democratic county chairpersons (40%), according to the dual surveys released by Environmental Defense.

Other prospective candidates scoring in the double-digits consist of Hillary Clinton (16%) and Barack Obama (13%) – while those prospective candidates scoring in single-digits include Tom Vilsack (9%), John Kerry (6%), Joe Biden (5%), Wesley Clark (3%), Bill Richardson (2%), and Evan Bayh (less than 1%). Overall, 8% of caucus-goers say they are undecided in their initial preference.

The surveys were conducted from October 12 to 19, 2006, among a cross-section of 602 likely Democratic caucus-goers and 100 Democratic county chair and vice chairs in Iowa. The research was conducted by HARSTAD STRATEGIC RESEARCH, INC., of Boulder, Colorado.

View results: Iowa Statewide Surveys of Likely 2008 Democratic Caucus-Goers and County Chairs - October 2006 [PDF]