Kansas Crop Mix Needs to Shift by 2050 Due to Climate Change

(DES MOINES, IA) Kansas — a critical breadbasket for the U.S. and the world — suffered a severe drought this summer, and yields of staple crops like winter wheat declined as a result. As climate change continues to make these challenging growing conditions more likely, farmers will need long-term solutions to keep their farms productive and the world fed.

A new Environmental Defense Fund study, Kansas in 2050: A pathway for climate-resilient crop production, recommends a promising path toward greater resilience. By replacing some acres of wheat, corn and soybeans with more drought-tolerant grains, Kansas farmers can lower water use by 12% and increase nutrition per acre. With groundwater levels dropping and the global population rising, both of these measures are essential.

“There are actionable steps we must begin taking today to prepare Kansas farms for a hotter, drier future,” said Eileen McLellan, report co-author and lead senior scientist at EDF. “Many farmers are already taking steps to increase resilience, including by integrating additional crops into their operations. Many more could join this vital transition if they had extra financial and policy support to do so.”

EDF, in collaboration with Two Degrees Adapt, used an ensemble of 20 climate models to predict how climate change would affect county-level crop production and water use in 2050. The models found that by mid-century:

1. The current rainfed crop mix in Kansas will be unsustainable due to higher temperatures and growing water scarcity. Increasing irrigation to make up for rainfall deficits would deplete groundwater to dangerously low levels.
2. Diversifying crop production — by replacing some current wheat, corn and soybean acres with oats, sorghum, rye and millet — can maintain nutritional output under climate change while reducing crop water demand by 12%.

The report also summarizes the results of interviews with 10 Kansas farmers about their experiences with climate impacts and adaptation efforts they had already begun.

According to Dr. JohnElla Holmes, executive director of the Kansas Black Farmers Association and one of the farmers interviewed, climate-smart growing practices have been a topic of discussion for farmers in the organization’s network since the 2000s.

“Healthy soils help get us through dry spells like we had this summer. Many of our farmers have had great success adding sorghum and fallow periods into crop rotations, along with using no-till practices, to increase soil health so that it holds onto more water. It’s one way we invest in the long-term resilience of our farms,” said Dr. Holmes.

The report builds on an EDF report released last year, which found that climate change will hinder Iowa corn, Minnesota soybeans and Kansas winter wheat yield growth by as soon as 2030 without urgent action to make agriculture more resilient.

It’s crucial that the world support farmers in keeping agriculture productive and sustainable in a changing climate. Resilient crop production is within our reach and will require financial and technical assistance from the public and private sectors. The work must begin now.

Join EDF and global producers during the World Food Prize’s Borlaug Dialogues for a conversation about ways to diversify crop production and increase resilience. The livestream begins Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 1:45 pm CDT.

Learn more at edf.org/kansas-2050.