Analysis Finds U.S. Electric Vehicle Battery Manufacturing on Track to Meet Demand

(Washington, D.C. – January 3, 2024) An analysis by Environmental Defense Fund finds that enough U.S. battery production capacity has already been announced to supply all the electric vehicles – both cars and trucks – expected to be sold in 2030.

EDF’s analysis determined that more than 1,000 gigawatt hours per year of U.S. EV battery production capacity has already been announced to come online by 2028. That’s the equivalent of what is needed to power 10 million electric cars – and is more than enough to supply all the electric vehicles that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency projects could be sold in 2030.

The EV market is already rapidly growing – EPA recently announced that electric vehicles reached 12% of all vehicles produced for sale in the U.S. in 2023, an increase of 70% over the year before.

All of the announced electric vehicle battery manufacturing captured in EDF’s latest analysis is domestic, which underscores that the U.S. is poised to supply its own battery needs. States with the most announced battery production capacity include Michigan (140 gigawatt hours per year), Georgia (136 gigawatt hours per year), Tennessee (128 gigawatt hours per year), Kentucky (119 gigawatt hours per year) and Indiana (97 gigawatt hours per year).

“This analysis adds to the large body of evidence already supporting the unambiguous feasibility of protective EPA vehicle emission standards for both light-and-medium-duty and heavy-duty vehicles,” said Ellen Robo, EDF’s Manager of Transportation and Clean Air Policy.

EDF’s analysis evaluates battery demand that could result if manufacturers choose to sell battery electric vehicles to meet both EPA’s Multi-Pollutant Emission Standards for Light and Medium-Duty Vehicles and EPA’s Phase 3 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Heavy-Duty. 45 battery manufacturing facilities have been announced already, with an average production capacity of 23 gigawatt hours per year. What’s more, the average time between announcement and expected start of production for the battery facilities in this analysis is 2.7 years. That means additional facilities that would come online after 2026 have not yet been announced. It also means manufacturers can respond to additional demand for batteries in a relatively short timeframe.

Roughly 90% of electric vehicle battery demand is expected to come from passenger vehicles, although demand for electric buses and trucks is also growing. Heavy-duty, commercial vehicle manufacturers have begun announcing battery production facilities, and significant sharing of batteries and components is possible across light and heavy-duty electric vehicles.

The announced battery production is driven, in part, by tax credits and incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act that provide strong support for manufacturers to build batteries in the U.S. An earlier analysis by EDF and WSP focused on the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act in dramatically accelerating U.S. investments in electric vehicle manufacturing and job growth. That report found more than $165 billion in announced investments over the last eight years, with 56% of that investment occurring since passage of the IRA. The announced investments will support 179,000 direct jobs and are expected to create more than 800,000 additional jobs in the broader economy.