The call for accelerating the supply of sustainable shipping fuels

By Marie Cabbia Hubatova and Angie Farrag-Thibault

At a time when it is critical to eliminate our dependence on fossil fuels, the shipping industry is endeavoring to do its part to decarbonize and keep global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Its success depends on there being sufficient clean fuel supply to substitute fossil fuels — but we are not on track. We need robust near-term decisions at the International Maritime Organization and in member states to bring investment security to steer the industry transition onto course.

In the last year, there’s been a significant increase in ambition and progress toward designing mid-term regulatory measures at the IMO to decarbonize shipping — such as a global fuel standard and a greenhouse gas pricing mechanism. These measures are due to be adopted in 2025.  The 2023 Strategy also set a target of at least 5% zero-emission fuels in the maritime fuel supply mix by the end of this decade, striving for 10%.

Yet, as of now, there’s not enough sustainable fuel supply to meet the demand these targets require. While there are certainly first movers among fuel producers, building up the necessary scale to make substantial progress takes time and significant investments. According to the Getting to Zero Coalition — 200 organizations from the maritime, energy, infrastructure and finance sectors — the scale of investment needed to decarbonize shipping by mid-century is around 1.6 trillion U.S. dollars, of which 87% is required to develop on-land production facilities and infrastructure for clean fuels. That is the equivalent of Spain’s GDP.

But the money is not yet flowing into this transformation fast enough due to policy uncertainty as regulatory measures are yet to be finalized. This is a serious problem, one which also trickles down to ship owners who face a dilemma: understanding the importance of switching to green fuels to decarbonize the industry and wanting to take timely action but struggling to clean up fleets due to the lack of sustainable fuels in the market. This includes many companies known for their ambitious environmental goals and investments in cleaner ships and technology. The time-lag represents a formidable operational challenge as ships ordered today will likely be in operation in 2050 — the target year selected for the sector to hit net zero emissions.

Even though the IMO 2023 Strategy sent a clear signal that fossil fuels cannot power the industry for much longer, those who need to renew their fleet now, to maintain their operating capacity and remain competitive, find themselves in a situation where they cannot confidently futureproof their business. Due to current fuel availability, cost competitiveness and existing infrastructure, many companies end up ordering LNG ships, some possibly with the vision of running them on biomethane or synthetic LNG.

In addition, the IMO’s mid-term policy measures, required to meet the level of ambition established in the 2023 Strategy, are currently being negotiated. These measures need a framework to calculate a fuel’s full lifecycle emissions to determine all environmental and societal impacts — there are currently no universally agreed criteria to define sustainable marine fuels. The absence of such criteria is a hindrance to identifying truly clean fuels and incentivizing their production at scale. This is why LNG, and biofuels of unsustainable origin, are often pitched as clean fuels — doing a disservice to the efforts to clean up the industry.

Despite often being branded as a clean fuel, LNG has largely unabated methane emissions across the supply chain and utilization — this is also the case for LNG’s non-fossil-derived alternatives. Biomethane has the potential to be a better option if it derives from existing biogas-producing facilities that currently release methane into the atmosphere. But even in such instances, it is essential to manage methane leakage throughout the value chain (biogas production and processing and biomethane distribution, storage and combustion) to maximize the climate benefit. Concerns that these issues are being overlooked are why there are an increasing number of voices calling for a phase-out of LNG fuel use.

Decarbonizing international shipping depends on commercializing cleaner fuel alternatives and suitable technologies. In 2025, the IMO must provide clear direction through robust policy measures. A well-designed basket of robust policy measures to reduce emissions from ships are key to incentivizing clean fuel production at scale. To ensure the sector’s transition to clean fuels is smooth and happens in the timeframe set in the 2023 Strategy, it is important that clean fuel availability is facilitated, and fuel producer’s voices are considered in IMO negotiations. The system must be set up in a way that rewards first movers and doesn’t penalize them or compromise their business. We also encourage governments across the globe to support the enabling conditions for investment in clean fuel production worldwide.